Oscar Predictions: Best Actor
Oscar Predictions: Best Actor*
I write this post today in the knowledge that the Academy has yet again made a dumbfounding decision to leave Senna out of the long list for nominations for Best Documentary ahead of next year’s ceremony. With this in mind, it leads me to believe there will be no real surprises from the Awards next year. This has been stressed before, this blog series is to prove just how predictable, and on occasion ridiculously wrong, the Academy can be and this week I barely needed to set that up. They have, in one fell swoop, alienated film lovers the world over by leaving out possibly one of the finest documentaries I have ever seen. To twist the knife in further, they will no doubt invent some outlandish rule as to why this has happened “oh well, we couldn’t include that on the nomination list, because, you know it was released in Spain the exact same time as Brazil” or something that is just as crazy.
Anyway, this week we turn our attention to the Best Actor Oscar, which is, as usual one of the tightest categories in the awards. Unfortunately, the Best Actor is occasionally like the Best Director category; the actor that eventually wins has such an amazing body of work that the Academy feel compelled to give them an award for the role that may not have really been their best. Al Pacino is perhaps the greatest example here and I’m almost convinced he turned up at certain people’s windows holding a dead horse’s head ahead of his win in 1993. “Seriously you’re giving me this for Scent of a Woman??? I WAS THE FRIGGING GODFATHER!!!!” Firth should have probably picked up the award for A Single Man. Then there’s Ledger who most certainly should have picked it up for Brokeback Mountain, it was almost as if the Academy were shamed into The Dark Knight Oscar following his death. (That final scene in the caravan in Brokeback Mountain deserved the Oscar alone; it breaks my heart every single time) And then we have Daniel Day-Lewis who should basically have a category entirely to himself named “I am Daniel Day-Lewis-I have made a film-Just give me the bloody trophy” award.
For 2012, before I even write my list of nominations, Ryan Gosling is far and away the most deserving of the Best Actor Oscar considering his body of work this year alone. Violent in Drive, suave and comedic in Crazy, Stupid, Love and intense in The Ides of March, Gosling is the actor of the moment but unfortunately he will probably have to die before the Academy notices.
Best Actor Nominations
Brad Pitt, Moneyball (Mr. Serious, Robert Redford lookalikey)
George Clooney, The Descendants (I do comedy too ya know, I’m nominated for everything)
Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March (Wasn’t I far better in another movie?)
Michael Fassbender, Shame (Academy give an award to a depiction of a sex addict? HAHAHA)
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar (wow a nomination! Do I have to go to the ceremony?)
Honourable mentions
Jean Dujardin, The Artist (there is a distinct possibility Gosling will be thrown out of the category altogether in favour of this, god they LOVE old Hollywood). Joseph Gordon-Levitt is an actor who picks some thoroughly interesting material, despite the fact that he must be getting offers left, right and centre since working with Nolan. Unfortunately, far too honourable to get a nom for 50/50, Academy hates honourable people. And finally, the British have realised they are on to something with The King’s Speech. “Here, what else can we do that’s very Englishy? Oh, let’s do an old school spy film that will be a whole lot of nothing but an AMAZING cast.” Step up, Gary Oldman. Michael Shannon? “Oh he is thoroughly brilliant but the Academy doesn’t feel like we KNOW him just yet.” (i.e. he’s not nearly dead yet.)
And the Oscar goes to…
“Leo, we dislike you intensely. We’ll never give you anything. By the way, what happened to your Oscar protests?”
Unfortunately, Fassbender should actually win the honour but the Academy will find it very difficult to hand it over for that intense, raw performance. He has a graphic threesome? Give me back that damn statue!
How did Gosling make it into this category? We warned you all. He’s too good! Stop it!
George, listen we’ve been real nice to you today. We’ve given you some ice-cream, you’ve had a go on the swings and the clown blew you up a balloon. Now, head off home like a good little boy and be glad we notice you.
Who’s your nice friend? Honestly, this is Brad Pitt’s year. He’s super duper serial now and there is literally nothing the Academy loves better than the underdog films. And this has baseball? “Dear Mr. Pitt, we are sending you this letter in advance of your appearance at the ceremony. Look, it’s in the bag.”
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No question but that Jean Dujardin is getting nominated. Pitt, Clooney, Dicaprio and Dujardin are dead certs. After that, it’s between Michael Fassbender, Ryan Gosling and Gary Oldman for the fifth slot, with the edge for Fassbender.
Also, it is worth noting that the Academy has nominated Michael Shannon before, so I think they know him just fine.